Venezuela After Operation Absolute Resolve

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front):
Across security, society, the economy, energy, and external engagement, Venezuela entered a transition defined by continuity under constraint rather than collapse or consolidation. The removal of senior leadership disrupted coordination without dismantling capacity. Institutions continue to function at reduced effectiveness, households and firms operate defensively, and external actors maintain leverage through ambiguity. The dominant condition is suspension. The outcome over the next phase will depend on whether consistent enforcement, legal clarity, and governance sequencing emerge before informal systems and localized power arrangements harden.